Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Dr. Rodney Stark, in his book America's Blessings (published by Templeton Press), attempts to correlate religiosity with crime in Chapter Two.  He offers Table 2.1 as evidence that crime in irreligious Western Europe exceeds crime in the mostly Christian US.  In looking at this table, it seems clear, according to Dr. Stark, that crime rates are indeed lower in the mostly religious US than in irreligious Europe.  To exemplify this, Dr. Stark tabulates UNODC data in the categories he offers (burglary, theft and assault), where US crime numbers are always shown at the bottom of each category.  So far so good it seems, yet, there are serious problems with his analysis.

The first problem with Dr. Stark's analysis, is that he fails to tabulate the crimes of rape and robbery (which are a part of the UNODC date set).  Why is that, since these are both violent crimes (you'll discover the answer)?  Nor does he show the same nation's crime statistics for each crime category.   He also fails to offer the caveat listed by the UNODC regarding the use of these data (which is shown below).  Why not? 

Dr. Stark never tabulates homicide (much higher in the US) because he believes it to be under-reported in Europe.  No data for his assertion of under reporting are offered.

It is my contention that Dr. Stark, in his Table 2.1, has cherry picked from the UNODC data set to make the deceptive point that crime and religiosity correlate.  They do no such thing using UNODC data!

The Templeton Press website offers the following virtues of Sir John Templeton (copied from their site) with explanation:   

Honesty, thrift, forgiveness, kindness, humility, joy, love, self reliance, altruism, perseverance, creativity, curiosity, generosity, gratitude, and purpose are but some of the qualities that Templeton Press explores in our ever-expanding Virtues publishing list.


Our founder, Sir John Templeton, believed that these virtues were universal truths. Though they had all been taught by the many world religions for hundreds of years, he sought to find evidence of their usefulness through rigorous scientific and statistical research funded by his John Templeton Foundation.


I sincerely believe that Dr. Stark's data were not presented honestly in Table 2.1 of his book America's Blessings and to show this I offer the following: 

The first table below was created from Dr. Stark's book America's Blessings.  The second table was created using UNODC data for nations with complete data for the year 2010 which include rape and robbery (not included by Dr. Stark). Caveats are shown.  Approximate national religiosity data are also included (Dr. Stark failed to offer this).  

Please come to your own conclusions.   

America's Blessings by Rodney Stark
Table 2.1.
Comparing American and Western European Crime Rates (2008)


Burglaries per 100,000 Population
Denmark 1715
Austria 1203
Switzerland 1147
UK 1068
Sweden 1024
Belgium 849
Netherlands 738
USA 713


Thefts per 100,000 Population
Sweden 4256
Denmark 3483
UK 3013
Norway 2647
Germany 2399
Finland 2266
USA 2114


Assaults per 100,000 Population
Sweden 919
UK 770
Belgium 697
Finland 656
Germany 630
Ireland 389
Netherlands 361
Portugal 314
France 303
USA 268
Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 2009.




The following Table was created using 2010 crime data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime.html

"Please note that when using the figures, any cross-national comparisons should be conducted with caution because of the differences that exist between the legal definitions of offenses in countries, or the different methods of offense counting and recording."

* Changes in definitions and/or counting rules are reported by the Member State to indicate a break in the time series.

"The Religiosity Index is a measure of the importance of religion for respondents and their self-reported attendance of religious services. For religions in which attendance at services is limited, care must be used in interpreting the data. (Gallup WorldView)  In 2006, 2007, and 2008, Gallup asked representative samples in 143 countries and territories whether religion was an important part of their daily lives.  Based on the results, the Table shows religiosity by country, ranging from the least religious to the most religious on a relative basis. Data from 2009 Gallup poll."

Please compare the following table's crime and religiosity data with those of Stark's Table 2.1.   



Assault

Rape

Robbery

Theft

Burglary
Country Religiosity Incidence Country Religiosity Incidence Country Religiosity Incidence Country Religiosity Incidence Country Religiosity Incidence
Sweden 17 936.6 Sweden 17 63.5 Belgium 33 1723.2 Netherlands 25 3985 Denmark 18 1742.4
Belgium 33 723.8 Belgium 33 29.1 Spain 50 1146 Sweden 17 3923 New Zealand 33 1358.1
UK 27 655 UK 27 28 Chile 70 477.2 Denmark 18 3443.3 Austria 55 1054.5
Germany 41 626.8 USA 65 27.6 Trinidad and Tobago 92 381.9 New Zealand 33 2677.1 Sweden 17 988.5
Israel 50 620.2 New Zealand 33 25.8 France 30 192.8 Norway* 21 2594.4 Netherlands 25 965.3
Finland 28 616.3 Norway* 21 19.2 Portugal 72 191.5 UK 27 2539 UK 27 933
Republic of Korea 33 606.7 France 30 16.1 UK 27 136 Finland 28 2269.5 Belgium 33 898.7
Netherlands 25 362.9 Finland 28 15.2 USA 65 118.9 Germany 41 2227.5 Switzerland* 42 812.1
Ireland 54 336.4 Israel 50 13.8 Russian Federation 33 115.1 Belgium 33 2195.2 Greece 72 711.8
France 30 307.2 Ireland 54 10.7 Sweden 17 98.3 USA 65 1999 USA 65 698.6
Portugal 72 288.7 Austria 55 10.4 Netherlands 25 96.9 Austria 55 1795.7 Chile 70 668.5
New Zealand 33 257.8 Republic of Moldova 72 10.3 Canada 42 89.6 Canada 42 1597 Macedonia 79 650.3
USA 65 251.9 Netherlands 25 9.9 Ireland 54 71.5 Switzerland* 42 1560.3 Slovenia 47 644.7
Denmark 18 191 Germany 41 9.4 Denmark 18 60.7 Ireland 54 1463.5 Canada 42 578.4
Czech Republic 21 172.2 Switzerland* 42 7.1 Germany 41 58.5 Slovenia 47 1441.4 Ireland 54 568.7
Canada 42 163 Chile 70 6.8 Switzerland* 42 57.5 Hungary 39 1344.2 Czech Republic 21 560
Hungary 39 145.6 Trinidad and Tobago 92 6.7 New Zealand 33 57 France 30 1218.2 France 30 516
Chile 70 130.1 Denmark 18 6.2 Greece 72 53.5 Czech Republic 21 1203.8 Israel 50 480.1
Algeria 93 116.7 Czech Republic 21 5.6 Austria 55 51.3 Chile 70 1093 Portugal 72 474.4
Hong Kong 23 107.8 Romania 84 4.2 Poland 75 50.6 Greece 72 1043.4 Germany 41 467.8
Slovenia 47 107.5 Poland 75 4.1 Bulgaria 34 49.9 Israel 50 975.2 Hungary 39 443.2
Tajikistan 85 79.8 Portugal 72 4 Israel 50 39.2 Portugal 72 890.5 Norway* 21 436.2
Greece 72 67.2 Russian Federation 33 3.4 Czech Republic 21 38.3 Russian Federation 33 775.3 Spain 50 434.9
Norway* 21 60 Spain 50 3.4 Serbia 51 36.7 Croatia 67 683.7 Croatia 67 419
Romania 84 57.3 Cyprus 75 3.3 Norway* 21 34.5 Bulgaria 34 673.6 Trinidad and Tobago 92 391.8
Spain 50 54.4 Singapore 70 3.2 Hungary 39 34 Japan 24 559.1 Poland 75 366
Trinidad and Tobago 92 45.9 Croatia 67 3.2 Macedonia 79 29.3 Poland 75 532.7 Finland 28 346.3
Slovakia 47 44.4 Slovenia 47 3.1 Croatia 67 28.3 Slovakia 47 447.9 Bulgaria 34 320.3
Japan 24 44.4 Bulgaria 34 2.8 Finland 28 28.1 Republic of Moldova 72 381.9 Cyprus 75 292.8
Austria 55 43 Hungary 39 2.5 Slovenia 47 22.8 Singapore 70 359 Slovakia 47 270.6
Bulgaria 34 40.5 Kenya 94 2.3 Slovakia 47 21.7 Spain 50 313.9 Russian Federation 33 249.3
Kenya 94 34.7 Slovakia 47 2.1 Montenegro 46 21.7 Trinidad and Tobago 92 304 Republic of Korea 33 226.1
Montenegro 46 30.6 Greece 72 1.9 Cyprus 75 14.1 Macedonia 79 237.6 Montenegro 46 218.7
Russian Federation 33 27.8 Canada 42 1.7 Romania 84 11.6 Romania 84 227.3 Serbia 51 154
Croatia 67 22.4 Hong Kong 23 1.6 Armenia 73 11.5 Hong Kong 23 209.6 Republic of Moldova 72 126.6
Singapore 70 20 Macedonia 79 1.4 Hong Kong 23 11 Serbia 51 161.4 Japan 24 107.9
Cyprus 75 15.7 Japan 24 1 Singapore 70 10.2 Cyprus 75 151.3 Armenia 73 78.4
Serbia 51 14.1 Indonesia 99 0.9 Republic of Korea 33 9.2 Algeria 93 144 Romania 84 78
Indonesia 99 13.3 Algeria 93 0.9 Albania 33 7.4 Albania 33 124.1 Tajikistan 85 69.3
Macedonia 79 12 Tajikistan 85 0.8 Kenya 94 7 Armenia 73 118.5 Hong Kong 23 64.4
Republic of Moldova 72 11.6 Montenegro 46 0.8 Republic of Moldova 72 5.2 Montenegro 46 83.9 Algeria 93 24.6
Switzerland* 42 6.4 Albania 33 0.7 Indonesia 99 4.1 Tajikistan 85 52 Indonesia 99 22.4
Albania 33 5.6 Serbia 51 0.7 Tajikistan 85 3.6 Kenya 94 30 Singapore 70 16.1
Armenia 73 5 Armenia 73 0.4 Japan 24 3.2 Indonesia 99 10.2 Albania 33 7.2
Poland 75 1.4 Republic of Korea 33
Algeria 93 0.9 Republic of Korea 33 10.2 Kenya 94 4.4